пятница, 2 марта 2012 г.

A Millennium With `AtmosFear'; When the Video Phone Rings, Won't You Want to Hide?

Futurist Faith Popcorn has seen the future. And she's terrified.What is this trend consultant planning to do on the night theclocks tick into the millennium?

"I'm going to hide under my bed," says Popcorn, whose trademarkshock of blue hair has gone meaningfully white. "I'm scared to deathof cloning and of pollutants in the atmosphere and all the rest ofthe stuff out there. I'll be alone with my dust balls."But does it matter that Popcorn won't be dancing the nightaway at the Rainbow Room? Probably. Corporations from BMW and RJRNabisco to Corning rely on Popcorn and her company, BrainReserve, toidentify patterns in consumer behavior. Where she projects, they'lllikely follow.Popcorn, who revealed her inner fears on a recent pass throughWashington, is best known for coining the term "cocooning" todescribe people retreating to the comfort of their homes in the1980s. That's evolved into the "armored cocoon" concept, in whichhomes are being fortified against the onslaughts of modern life. Nowshe sees a population worried about contaminated air and water, roadrage, the uncertainty of deadly food-borne illnesses andoverstressed ecosystems.She calls this new national nervousness "AtmosFear." No matterhow much people will deploy aromatherapy or antibacterial soap orfeng shui, she thinks the Year 2000 will usher in an era of unease.She has added a chapter on "AtmosFear" to her 1997 book "Clicking:17 Trends that Drive Your Business -- and Your Life"(HarperCollins), just out in paperback. Her co-author is LysMarigold.So far, all this bad karma is just a marketing "drift," not afull-fledged trend, she's telling her corporate clients. But withdanger lurking, some changes are bound to make their way home.Consider these:Video telephones will be much more affordable, though whetherthey will bring families together or be yet another annoyingintrusion isn't clear.Aromatherapy systems will be installed in houses, allowing roomsto give off different fragrances for relaxation and health.Home offices that need to be mobile will expand to mini-vans orsport utility vehicles with built-in technology and powerfulsecurity systems.Consumers fearful of E. coli and other food-borne viruses andbacteria will eat at home more, sparking the reappearance of themilkman and other home delivery services.Consumers will shop the Internet for major home appliances. "Ifyou want a new dishwasher, you'll send out a message on the Internetto find the best one at the best price. And there will be aguarantee of 24-hour repair service," says Popcorn.So far so good. But Popcorn thinks cloning and self-seeding willsend the male/female relationship into a "chaotic" imbalance. "Itwill reset the psychology of children," she predicts.Popcorn thinks the millennium already has become a cliche, butsome good may come of it."The millennium is a mass consciousness movement," says Popcorn."I don't think the date is that important. But if everyone thinks itis, things will happen. We're putting a lot of energy into it."

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